Published : 2 days ago, on 06/12/2024

By Lawrence Delevingne and Iain Withers

BOSTON/LONDON (Reuters) -Investors raised their bets on the prospect of a U.S. interest rate cut this month, after payrolls data showed job growth came in roughly in line with expectations in November, while the euro was flat versus the dollar as political turmoil gripped France.

Futures markets put an 87% chance on the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting on Dec. 17-18 after the payrolls data, compared with a 68% chance earlier in the session.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 jobs last month after rising an upwardly revised 36,000 in October, in a month hit by hurricanes and strikes. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls accelerating by 200,000 jobs.

Data this morning was a Thanksgiving buffet with payrolls spot on, revisions positive, but unemployment ticking higher despite the participation rate falling,” Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in an email. “This print doesn’t kill the holiday spirit and the Fed remains on track to deliver a cut in December.”

Wall Street’s main stock indexes were up after the data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.22% to 44,866, the S&P 500 gained 0.28% to 6,092 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.33%, to 19,766.

The U.S. dollar index was little changed at 105.78.

Treasuries rallied after the data on Friday. The two-year note was last yielding 4.092%, down 5.5 basis points on the day, while 10-year benchmark yields were down 4 bps at 4.141%.

European stocks were also up 0.3% on the day, while Britain’s FTSE 100 was flat, as investors digested news that insurer Aviva had agreed to buy rival Direct Line for 3.6 billion pounds ($4.6 billion).

The Aviva swoop on Direct Line in Britain was further evidence of a pick-up in dealmaking across markets, said Shaneel Ramjee, senior investment manager at Pictet. “Throughout both Europe and the U.S., these deals are starting to get done, and that just means more activity in the economy,” he said.

In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan reversed earlier losses to be up 0.2% thanks to a rally in Chinese shares, making up for investor caution around political ructions in South Korea.

Chinese shares had climbed to three-week highs as investors scooped up technology shares ahead of a top-level policy meeting next week that will set the agenda and targets for China’s economy next year.

The risk premium investors demand to hold French debt rather than German Bunds dropped to a two-week low on Friday, after President Emmanuel Macron said he would appoint a new prime minister soon to get a 2025 budget approved by parliament.

The euro had rallied on Thursday, on market relief that France had avoided a more volatile political outcome for now. The euro was last broadly flat on the day and the week at $1.057.

BITCOIN REVERSAL

Bitcoin, which hit the $100,000 mark for the first time on Thursday as investors bet on a friendly U.S. regulatory shift, ran into profit-taking. It tumbled as far as $92,092 and was last down 0.15% on the day at $98,871.

“This spike in volatility over the last 24 hours has the hallmarks of a classic blow-off top,” said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG.

Oil prices fell as the decision from OPEC+ to delay a planned hike in output to April highlighted concerns about weak demand. U.S. crude fell 1.42% to $67.34 a barrel and Brent dropped to $71.14 per barrel, down 1.32% on the day. [O/R]

Gold prices inched lower on Friday, down 0.1% to $2,629 per ounce, headed for a second straight week of declines.

(Reporting by Lawrence Delevingne in Boston, Iain Withers in London, additional reporting by Suzanne McGee in Providence and Johann Cherian and Stella Qiu in Sydney; Editing by David Evans, and Frances Kerry, Toby Chopra and Jonathan Oatis)